镍汇丰预测金价狂涨春节前镍价会涨吗

2009年报关员:镍:麦格理银行预测今年LME镍价将上涨34%:外贸信息-2009年百考试题网
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& 镍:麦格理银行预测今年LME镍价将上涨34%
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镍:麦格理银行预测今年LME镍价将上涨34%
来源 百考试题网
  麦格理银行近日称,由于镍供给增长缓慢,镍市场紧张局面将持续到2010年,预计今年镍均价将上涨34%。
  麦格理银行商品研究部主管吉姆·列农在第三届新喀里多尼亚镍会议上表示,尽管去年镍成为去年伦敦金属交易所基本金属表现中最闪亮的明星,但这并没有妨碍今年其现货价再次暴涨,均价达到32518美元/吨,远远高于去年24271美元/吨的均价。他表示,镍库存水平仍然维持低位,预计镍价未来3年平均价格将维持在30000美元-32000美元/吨之间。
  列农表示,去年全球镍供给出现51000吨的较大缺口,预计今年市场将出现小幅过剩7000吨,但2008年需求强劲增长7.4%将消化7.3%的产量增长,使得市场供给紧张局面延续。他预计今年需求增长放慢至2.9%,低于去年11.9%的增速,不过2008年将反弹至7.4%。
  不过,也有迹象显示全球不锈钢产量增长放缓,比如美国、南欧地区的库存上升,中国不锈钢出口上升,在去年全球不锈钢产量大幅增长15.9%之后,今年预计增速回落至2.2%。
  不过,他还表示,由于印度、中国以及其他一些发展中国家加快城市化发展和基础设施建设,以及可能非洲被压抑的需求释放出来,预计年不锈钢需求增长将达到5.5%。如果不出现镍短缺的话,全球镍的需求年增长速度将达到4.8%。
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你可能喜欢镍价还能涨多高 吉恩镍业股价或已透支_百度知道
镍价还能涨多高 吉恩镍业股价或已透支Goldman Sees Nickel Rally Following a Drop in Pig Iron
Goldman Sees Nickel Rally Following a Drop in Pig Iron
By Editing NAI10/28/ a.m.
Nickel prices in London may advance on slower stockpile builds as output of a lower-grade alternative drops in the coming months, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Nickel pig iron output cuts are likely at current prices and could balance the market, the bank&s analysts including Max Layton and Roger Yuan wrote in a report dated yesterday. The Philippine monsoon season will cut supply, boosting ore prices and the production cost of nickel pig iron, or NPI, through February, according to the analysts.
&A slowdown in LME nickel stock builds is likely to be necessary to see nickel rally significantly from current prices,& the bank said in the report. &We expect this will occur as NPI production cuts feed through, and as we believe China&s destocking is nearing an end.&
Nickel slid into a bear market this year as London Metal Exchange stockpiles surged 45 percent to a record. The metal for delivery in three months on the LME slumped for the seventh day and extending its longest losing streak since November 2013.
About 70,000 tons a year of China&s NPI capacity may be shut in order to reduce pollution in the lead up to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Beijing that starts Nov. 10, the analysts said in the report. NPI represents 25 percent of global refined supply, according to Goldman Sachs. The Philippines has ramped up ore shipments to China after Indonesia, the top nickel producer from mines, started a ban on unprocessed ore exports in January.
During the first nine months of the year, the Philippines exported 27.1 million tons of nickel ore to China, according to China&s customs data. The average grade of the ore exports is estimated at 1.2 percent nickel, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in an Oct. 24 report.
The quality of supplies from the Philippines will probably increase next year and into 2016 as miners produce an increasing share of higher-grade ore, according to JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva. China&s full-year imports from the country will rise 27 percent to 37.5 million tons in 2014 and remain at those levels through 2016, according to the bank.
Source:Bloomberg
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