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Levy Economics
Institute of
Bard College
Levy Economics Strategic Analysis Institute of Bard College March 2011 JOBLESS RECOVERY IS NO RECOVERY: PROSPECTS FOR THE US ECONOMY ??????? ?. ?????????????, ???? ????????, and ??????? ????? Intr
reasonably
during the last
expecta- tion
satisfactory
20 11C 12.
the expansion may indeed continue through 20 12, and perhaps for another quarter or so in 20 13. But with large deficits in the government and foreign sectors, satisfactory growth in the medium term cannot
course, cannot happen automatically, and it certainly will not happen without either a cut in the domes- tic absorption of goods and services in the United States or a revaluation of the currencies of the major
deflationary
world, while the latter might also cause a resumption of inflationary pressures. Following our usual custom, we make no short-term forecast.
nstead, using the Levy
nstitute’s macro model, which is rooted in a consistent system of stock and flow variables, we trace a range of possible medium-term scenarios in order to evaluate strategic predicaments and policy options, without being at all precise about timing. The Current State f the
my The new Republican Congress has changed the rules of how policy will be formed, at least for the next two years. Early legislative deliberations are firmly fixed on cutting the budget deficit―after having achieved a compromise with the White House in continuing President Bush’s tax cuts for some
government
withholding―so
stimulus The Levy
nstitute’s Macro-Modeling Team consists of President ??
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