北上深房价疯涨，美国房价持续走高。疯狂背后究竟是何真相？ 结局又将怎样？ 也许在电影《大空头》中能找到部分的答案。It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.-- Mark TwainBonds is boring until Lewis Ranieri came on the scene at the Saloman Brothers who had already changed the banking forever with one simple idea. MBS: The mortgage-backed security.&证券一直很无趣，直到Lewis出现在所罗门公司，用一个简单的想法永远改变了银行业。And then one day, almost 30 years later, in 2008, it all came crashing down. It's been called the worst financial crisis in modern times. Cerntainly the largest finacial disaster in decade. And perhaps the end of an era in American business. In the end, Lewis Ranieri's mortgage-backed security mutated into a monstrosity that collapsed the whole world economy.&然而有一天，大概30年后，2008年，一切都完了。被称为现代社会最严重的经济危机，最具灾难性的经济危机，可能是美国商业时代的终结。最后，Lewis的MBS畸变成摧毁世界经济的怪物。And none of the experts or leaders or talking heads had a clue it was coming. I'm guessing most of you still don't really know what happened. Yeah, you got a soundbite you repeat. So you don't sound dumb, but come on. Our financial institutions are strong. But there were some who saw it coming. While the whole world was having a big old party, a few outsiders and weirds saw what no one else could. These outsiders saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy and they saw it by doing something the rest of suckers never thought to do.专家领袖评论员都没注意它的到来。我猜你们也没意识到发生了什么。你也在人云亦云。让自己入流点，但是别自欺欺人了。但还是有人看出来。当全世界守着旧时繁荣的时候，局外人和怪人独具慧眼。他们看出了经济中心的巨大谎言，并且做了其他废柴永远想不到的事。Greenspan just said, bubbles are regional, defaults are rare. These MBS are filled with extremely risky subprime adjustable-rate loans and when the majority of the adjustable rates.格林斯潘说泡沫是地区性的，默认是不会有的。MBS充满了极度危险的次级可调利率贷款，大部分都是可调利率。Basically, Lewis Ranieri's mortgage bonds were amazingly profitable for the big banks. They made billions and billions on their 2% fee. They got for selling each of these bonds. But then they started running out of mortgages to put in them. After all, there are only so many homes and so many people with good enough jobs to buy them, right? So the banks started filling these bonds with riskier and riskier mortgages. That way they can keep that profit machine churning, right? By the way, these risky mortgages are called subprime. So whenever you hear &subprime&, think &shit&. Michael Burry found out that these mortgage bonds that were supposedly 65% AAA were actually just mostly full of shit. So now he is going to &short& the bonds which means to &bet against&.&通常说，Lewis的房贷证券对大公司是赚钱的。他们通过买卖的2%提成轻松赚几十亿。但是已经没有足够的房贷加入组成证券了。毕竟好工作好房子是有限的对吧？所以银行开始用风险高的贷款来充数。这样可以让造钱机器继续运转。BTW，这些高风险贷款成为次级贷。Michael发现65%3A贷款实际上一文不值。所以他打算“做空”MBS，就是做亏它。The housing market is&propped&up&on these bad loans and it's a time bomb.I want to buy swaps on mortgage bonds. A credit default swap that will pay off if the underlying bond fails. These bonds only fail if millions of Americans don't pay their mortgages. Based on prevailing sentiment of the market and banks in popular culture, it looks foolish. My one concern is that when the bonds fail, I want to be certain of payment in case of solvency issues with your bank. The bank could work out a pay-as-we-go structure that would pay out if the bonds fail. But it would also apply to your payments if the value of the mortgage bond goes up.房地产市场被这些问题贷款支撑着就是个定时炸弹。我想买房贷股票的掉期，一种基础债券失效时仍然有效的信用违约互换。这些证券只有在百万美国人还不起月供的时候才会失效。根据市场和银行主流判断，是不明智。我关心的是，一旦垮了，我想确定你们银行偿还能力。银行可以动用现收现付政策，当市场垮了，立刻付钱。但是如果MBS涨了，你要付额外费用。What's the abx at? It tracks subprime mortgage bond value. It's down three points since last year.资产担保证券指数是多少？它是跟踪次级贷价值的，从去年开始降了3个点。The mortgage bond were just thousands of AAA mortgages bundled together, guaranteed by the U.S. Government. Now, they are private and they are made up of layers of tranches (a portion of something). The highest level, AAA, is getting paid first. The lowest rated, B, is getting paid last taking on defaults first. Somewhere along the line, these B's and BB's went from a little risky to dog shit. I'm talking rock-bottom FICO scores. No income verification, adjustable rates, dog shit. The default rates are already up from 1% to 4%. and if they rise to 8%, and they will, a lot of these BBB's are going to zero, too.&房贷证券过去与3A房贷捆绑，政府担保。现在他们私有化，有多层份额组成。最高3A先付款，最低B最后付，也是最先违约的。某个时刻开始，B和BB从有风险到一文不值。我说的是最低信用评分。无收入证明，可调利率，啥也不是。利率已经从1%涨到4%，如果涨到8%，一定会的，这些BBB也会变成0.With something called a credit default SWAP. It's like insurance on the bond, and if it goes bust, you can make 10-to-1, even 20-to-1 return. No one takes the attention because the banks are too busy getting paid obscene fees to sell these bonds. How can these underlying bonds be as bad as you say? I've seen some that are 65% AAA-rated, that I know for a fact are filled with 95% subprime shit with FICOs below 550. When the market deems a bond too risky to buy, what do you think we do with it? we just repackage it with a bunch of other shit that didn't sell and put it into a CDO.用叫做信用违约交换的方式。就像证券的保险，一旦衰退崩盘你可以得到10倍20倍的回报。没人注意是因为银行忙着赚着提成。真像你说的这么差吗？我看到的65%3A的贷款事实上充斥着95%低于550分的次级贷。当我们觉得市场认为风险大，你猜我们还能做啥？我们只是把它和其他卖不掉的重新打包放进CDO里。&(CDO Collateralized Debt Obligation: 担保债务凭证：资产证券化重要组成部分标的资产通常是信贷资产或债务). This is where we take a bunch of B's, BB's and BBB's that haven't sold and we put them in a pile. And when the pile gets large enough, the whole thing is suddenly considered diversified and the whores at the rating agency give it a 92/93 percent AAA-rating. No questions asked.一些没人要的B，BB，BBB打包成一堆。把它变得足够大，这堆就变成多样化投资，评级机构的人随意给他们贴上3A标签。无人过问。CDO is important to understand because it's what allowed a housing crisis to become a nationwide economic disaster. Explain it: I am a chef on a Sunday afternoon setting the menu at a big restaurant. I ordered my fish on Friday, which is the mortgage bond that Michael Burry shorted.But some of the fresh fish doesn't sell. I don't know why, Maybe it just came out Halibut has the intelligence of a dolphin. So what am I going to do? Throw all this unsold fish, which is the BBB level of bond in the garbage and take the loss? No way. Being the crafty and morally onerous chef that I am, whatever crappy levels of the bond I don't sell, I throw into a seafood stew. See, it's not old fish. it's a whole new thing! And the best part is they're eating 3-day-old halibut. That is a CDO. So mortgage bonds are dog shit,CDOs are dog shit wrapped in cat shit. Institutions treat these cdos like they're as solid as its own money and they're going to zero.CDO非常重要因为它导致了房产危机演变成全国经济灾难。解释：我是一名主厨制定周日下午菜单。星期五定了鱼，就像被Michael做空的房贷证券一般。但是一些新鲜的鱼没卖出去，我不知道，也许是比目鱼跟海豚一样聪明。我咋办？扔掉？他们好比BBB证券，都扔掉，承受损失？不要。作为心灵手巧和有原则的主厨，不管卖不出去的是啥烂玩意，我都把他们扔到海鲜汤里。这样，鱼还是原来的鱼，但是换了模样。秒的是，顾客吃的是三天的比目鱼。这就是CDO。所以，CDO就是猫屎裹着狗屎。机构认为CDO是个宝贝，其实它们很快一文不值。The banks have given us 25% interest rates on credit cards. They have screwed us on student loans that we can never get out from under. Only one question: Is there a housing bubble?银行信用卡25%利息。他们在学生贷款上也坑了我们，我们还无从脱身，一个问题： 有房产泡沫吗？Get an ISDA agreement with the bank so we can deal in long-term options. ISDA Agreement: An agreement that lets an investor sit at the 'big boy table' and make high level trades not available to stupid amateurs. Trying to be a high stakes trader without an ISDA is like trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama. (One billion four hundred seventy million as the limit.)ISDA agreement国际掉期和衍生品协会协议。此协议可以让投资者坐在大亨位置上，并且组织新人参与保证交易水平。没有ISDA的高风险交易员，就像骑着羊驼想赢Indy 500比赛一样。（准入门槛十亿四千七百万）One firm offers Nijia loans, no income, no job. Do people have any idea what they are buying? A yield guy makes $2000 on a fixed-rate prime loan, but I can make $10000 on a subprime adjustable. Even for the strippers. They always get option-pay adjustables and have more than one loan on a property. That way you only put down, like, 5%. Prices have leveled off though and if home prices don't go up, you are not going to be able to refinance and you'll be stuck paying whatever your monthly payment is once it jumps up after your teaser rate expires. The monthlies could go up 200%-300%.&一个公司提供忍者贷款，没收入没工作。人们知道他们买房风险吗？收款人固定利率贷款挣2000美元，但是次级调整贷款能挣10000美元。甚至是脱衣舞娘。他们总能得到可选调整利率贷款，并超过一个贷款。首付低于5%。价格不涨了。如果房价不涨了，你不能重新贷款了。你会陷入债务中，等利率优惠过去，月供会上涨2，3倍。Mortgage defaults have gone through the roof and subprime mortgage bond prices are up. Subprime loans go bad, but subprime bonds which are made up of subprime loans are more valuable? The rating company are they downgrading the cdos and mortgage bonds? no. They go public, and all they care about is their bottom line and their shit.&房贷断供到顶了，次级贷上涨。次级房贷变差，但是次级贷证券却更有价值？评级公司降低他们的CDO和房贷证券了吗？没有。他们公开后都没底线了。The rating company. If we don't work with them to giving AAA, they will go to our competitiors. They are selling ratings for fees like a rating shop. Mortgage delinquencies went up and the CDOs got more valuable.评价公司。如果我们没给AAA，他们会找我们的竞争者。他们买等级就像等级商店。房贷违约率升高，CDOs更值钱。房贷供应没了还涨。It's rigged. We bought into a rigged game. Mortgage defaults have done nothing but go up. Yet you quote us a higher price on the bonds. The ratings agencies, the SEC and the big bands were clueless. Now their foot's on fire, they think their steak is done.There is some shady shit going down, it's fueled by stupidity. Las Vegas , the American securitization forum. Business is good, profits are strong and the mortgage continues to be the bedrock on which this economy is built. And,yes, we had to take some losses in our subprime department last year, but those losses will be contained at only 5%, Now, in our residential sector our rollout of those variable rate packages were gobbled up by the consumers. Whould you say that it is a possibility or a probability that subprime losses stop at 5%?有黑幕，我们被黑了。房贷断供率一直涨。你给我们更高的报价。评价机构，美国证券交易委员会和大银行他们没反应过来。现在他们火烧脚了，他们觉得是火候了。有一些见不得人的勾当，它是被愚蠢驱使的。Las Vegas，美国证券业论坛。商业形式大好，利润很高，房贷还是经济的中流砥柱。是，我们去年在次级贷有些损失，但是不会超过5%。现在，住宅业务板块，我们推出的多样利率政策被客户抢购一空。你能说说可能性或必然性，次级贷能止于5%？We know that they say they're 95% AAA-rated, but in reality, they're more like 25%, some of them are 0%. We also know that if the bottom-tranches fail at over 8%. The upper-tranches are affected and they go to zero. I'll bet you that those AA's are actually like B's. You just bet against the American economy which means if we're right, people lose homes, lose jobs, lose retirement savings, lose pensions. You know what I hate about fucking banking. It reduces people to numbers. Here's the number. Every one percent unemployment goes up, 40 thousand people die.&我们知道他们声称95%是AAA，但实际上只有25%，还有些是0%。我们也知道如果底层超过8%违约率，上层就会一文不值。我赌你AA其实是B。你做空美国经济意味着如果你赢了，人们失业，流离失所，退休金没了，养老金没了。你知道我为啥恨银行。他们对人就像数字。数字来了，每1%的失业率上升，就有4万人死去。CDO manager: we select the securities that go into the CDO-portfolio and monitor the assets. Let's just assume Merrill and I have a good relationship.CDOs that you create are of the highest quality and highest value. CDO A has parts of CDO B and CDO B has parts of CDO A and then they both get put inside CDO C. that is called CDO square. And then there's CDO's made up of the opposite sides of the bet you made with the swaps, called synthetic CDOs. LEt's say you have a pool of 50million in subprime loans and synthetic CDOs are beting on that with a billion dollars. How much bigger is the market for insuring mortgage bonds thatn for actural mortgages？ 20 timesCDO管理：我们筛选进入CDO投资组合的证券，监控资产情况。假设我和证券公司关系好。CDOs都是最高品质和价值的。CDO A由B组成，B有A，他们都放到CDO C。我们叫CDO平方。CDO还能包括你互换抵押剩下的部分，我们叫合成CDO。我们说5千万的次级贷池子和合成CDO一起的赌注是10亿美元。房贷证券市场实际市值是房贷的20倍。If the mortgage-bonds that Michael Burry discovered were are match, then the CDOs were the kerosene soaked rags, then the synthetic CDO was the atomic bomb with a drunk president holding his finger over the button.如果Michael猜对了，CDOs是煤油浸泡的抹布，合成CDO就是原子弹，让一个醉鬼守着发射按钮。I took a rash of shit for two years, but I was right. 我被人喷了两年，最终还是对了。The largest bank in France froze it's customers' money-market accounts today. The thing is hitting Europe. Greece and Iceland are finished. Spain is teetering.今天法国把最大的货币市场账户冻结了。波及到欧洲了，希腊和冰岛完了。西班牙正在遭殃。Strap yourself in. 抓紧了看好戏。You have no plans to sell your two-hundred million in Bear stock. No, as a matter of fact, when we're done there, I'll probably go buy some more. For the opposing view.. My firm's thesis is pretty simple. Wall-street took a good idea: Lewis Ranein's mortgage-bonds and turned it into an atomic bomb of fraud and stupidity. That's on it's way to decimating the world economy. We live in an era of fraud in America，not just in banking, but in government, Education, religion, food, even baseball.What bothers me, isn't that fraud is not nice, or that fraud is mean, it's that for fifteen thousand years, fraud and short-sighted thinking have never ever worked, not once, eventually. I just know that at the end of the day, average people are going to be the ones, that are going to have to pay for all of this. That's my two cents.你不打算卖掉Bear股票。不，实际上，我们聊完，我可能会再买点。反方。。我们公司理念很简单，华尔街的好点子，Lewis的房贷证券，变成了欺诈和愚蠢做成的原子弹。现在原子弹马上就要毁了全球经济。现在美国充斥着欺诈，不仅是银行，还有政府, 教育，宗教，食品甚至棒球。困扰我的，不是欺诈不道德，欺诈邪恶，而是1万5千年来，欺诈和短视最终都不好使，一次都没有。我知道，今天过后，普通百姓要承受这些痛苦。这是我的拙见。We are not the bad guys. We didn't defraud the American people and prey on their dreams of owning a home. Now we get to kick them in the teeth. It's now or never.我们不是坏人，我们没有利用美国人的买房梦去欺诈。现在出手让他们满地找牙。机不可失，失不再来。When the dust settled from the collapse, 5 trillion dollars in pension money, real estate value, 401k, savings, and bonds had disappeared. 8 million people lost their jobs, 6 million lost their homes. And that was just in the USA.等动荡尘埃落定，5万亿美元人间蒸发，包括养老金，房产，401k，证券，储蓄。8万人失业，6万人无家可归，这只是美国的数据。In 2015, several large banks began selling billions in something called a &bespoke tranche opportunity&. Which, according to Bloomberg News, is just another name for a CDO.2015年开始，很多大银行发售十亿规模的“定制分级机会投资”，这就是改了名字的CDO。罗莎堡主(atsantarosa)　
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E. degreesF.
I. traditional
revolutionized Back in the last century self-study used to mean trying to learn from books. Then as technology moved on, electric products ___小题1:__ the way people learn a language. Audio cassettes enabled people to practice listening, video provided a vivid cultural environment of the languages, computers made interactivity possible, and the __小题2:__ of the Windows 95 operating system opened the door to full multimedia programs that could offer more than what the traditional materials could do.Today technology has moved on ___小题3:__ . The Internet has served as a communication center. The general use of email has __小题4:__new opportunities for teachers to assist learning at a distance, which has an impact on __小题5:__ learning structures. As you can make more and more progress on your own, the role of the teacher is changing. Basic information and drill can be
the teacher is then free to concentrate on the more important ___小题6:__: motivation and production of language in speech or writing. The latest development is a direct email link from self-study CD-ROMs to an online teacher. Now you can get __小题7:__ one-to-one tuition from any multimedia PC with an internet connection. When you need more help you __小题8:__ email the tutor. The tutor will know which course you are following and your results to date so he is able to provide good, relevant advice. All you do is to buy the CD-ROM at normal price and then get additional __小题9:__ as you feel the need. So the self-study becomes distance learning with all its advantages of flexibility and low cost. - 跟谁学
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Directions: Complete the following passage by using the words in the box. Each word can only be used once. Note that there is one word more than you need. personal
B. further
C. aspects
E. degreesF.
I. traditional
revolutionized Back in the last century self-study used to mean trying to learn from books. Then as technology moved on, electric products ___小题1:__ the way people learn a language. Audio cassettes enabled people to practice listening, video provided a vivid cultural environment of the languages, computers made interactivity possible, and the __小题2:__ of the Windows 95 operating system opened the door to full multimedia programs that could offer more than what the traditional materials could do.Today technology has moved on ___小题3:__ . The Internet has served as a communication center. The general use of email has __小题4:__new opportunities for teachers to assist learning at a distance, which has an impact on __小题5:__ learning structures. As you can make more and more progress on your own, the role of the teacher is changing. Basic information and drill can be
the teacher is then free to concentrate on the more important ___小题6:__: motivation and production of language in speech or writing. The latest development is a direct email link from self-study CD-ROMs to an online teacher. Now you can get __小题7:__ one-to-one tuition from any multimedia PC with an internet connection. When you need more help you __小题8:__ email the tutor. The tutor will know which course you are following and your results to date so he is able to provide good, relevant advice. All you do is to buy the CD-ROM at normal price and then get additional __小题9:__ as you feel the need. So the self-study becomes distance learning with all its advantages of flexibility and low cost.
Directions: Complete the following passage by using the words in the box. Each word can only be used once. Note that there is one word more than you need. personal
B. further
C. aspects
E. degreesF.
I. traditional
revolutionized Back in the last century self-study used to mean trying to learn from books. Then as technology moved on, electric products ___小题1:__ the way people learn a language. Audio cassettes enabled people to practice listening, video provided a vivid cultural environment of the languages, computers made interactivity possible, and the __小题2:__ of the Windows 95 operating system opened the door to full multimedia programs that could offer more than what the traditional materials could do.Today technology has moved on ___小题3:__ . The Internet has served as a communication center. The general use of email has __小题4:__new opportunities for teachers to assist learning at a distance, which has an impact on __小题5:__ learning structures. As you can make more and more progress on your own, the role of the teacher is changing. Basic information and drill can be
the teacher is then free to concentrate on the more important ___小题6:__: motivation and production of language in speech or writing. The latest development is a direct email link from self-study CD-ROMs to an online teacher. Now you can get __小题7:__ one-to-one tuition from any multimedia PC with an internet connection. When you need more help you __小题8:__ email the tutor. The tutor will know which course you are following and your results to date so he is able to provide good, relevant advice. All you do is to buy the CD-ROM at normal price and then get additional __小题9:__ as you feel the need. So the self-study becomes distance learning with all its advantages of flexibility and low cost.科目:难易度:最佳答案
小题1:J小题2:F小题3:B小题4:H小题5:I小题6:C小题7:A小题8:G小题9:D
试题分析：文章介绍随着科技的发展，电子产品改变了人们学习语言的方式，使学习更方便，更便宜。小题1:电子产品改变了人们学习语言的方式。用revolutionized“彻底改革”小题2:Windows 95操作系统的发行打开了多媒体节目的大门，选launch “发行”。小题3:现在科技进一步发展。填further“进一步“，选B小题4:电子邮件的普遍使用创造了老师远程辅助教学的机会。选created“创造”H小题5:这对传统的学习的框架有了改变，选traditional “传统的”小题6:老师可以专注于更加重要的方面。填aspects“方面”选C。小题7:你可以得到个人的一对一的老师。填personal“个人的”，选A小题8:当你需要进一步的帮助，你只需要发电子邮件给老师。填simply。选G小题9:你可以用正常的价格购买CD光盘还有外加的学费。填tuition“学费，选D

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