高盛科技股警报：FANG已死FAAMG万岁！但今年已经增加了6000亿美元市值相当于一个香港！比较一下2000年泡沫时代吧！
YES,昨天晚上美国科技股好不容易跌了！原因是高盛一个报告。美国股市的长期乱涨和中国股市的韭菜特色让业内业外都看不懂。小编承认也不懂。但比较一下美国股市在炒个啥，中国股市在抄个啥，就感觉我们完全生活在二个世界，二个世纪。高盛昨天发布的一个报告说，FANG已经失去了再咬一口的食欲，而FAAMG已经呼之欲出！是不是，是不是，是不是，重要的事情说三遍，对于大多数中国股民来说，这些词就是下一个世纪的事情。中国股市在干什么呢？茅台，茅台，茅台，是不是有一种图像即视感，一个穿长衫马褂的东方人就着茴香豆，说茴字有5种写法.....好吧！FANG=Facebook, Amazon, Netflix， GooglFAAMG=Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google ( Alphabet)someon5分钟前：Anyone who follows technology stocks is familiar with the acronym FANG: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google. The four were grouped together as a way to best represent the tech stock momentum that was leading the broad stock market.But Goldman Sachs believes FANG is losing its bite. Instead, we should look at another acronym that definitely rolls off the tongue: FAAMG.FAAMG combines Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google (actually Alphabet) into a tech stock Voltron. "While FANG has dominated investor focus, the nature of the acronym has expanded more broadly to encompass mega-cap tech. Indeed, the bigger story in our view is FAAMG," said Goldman Sachs in a research report.凌通社评发表于4天前135编辑器查看:13500回复:135而此时的中国，正在开展一场轰轰烈烈的清理八卦公众号的工作（老子最讨厌今日头条、还有好几个乱七八糟的无德的公众号，那个长的很那个的咪蒙，坚决拥护清理这些害群之马，咪蒙为什么不删？who knows），而几个对标美国互联网的恰好在中国的跨国公司呢，百度正试图从一家莆田医院推广公司转型到AI公司进行PPT都写不清楚的布局，腾讯和网易都假装自己不是游戏公司，阿里巴巴正在为假货和余额宝头痛。当然，摩拜单车和充电的正把中国的所有城市绿地填满自行车。昨天，高盛分析师罗伯特·博鲁杰尔牵头撰写报告称，“FAAMG”股票--Facebook、亚马逊、苹果、微软和Alphabet--的低波动，正导致投资者低估其风险；如果条件发生变化，可能会加剧其下行波动。报告分析称，如果FAAMG组成了一个行业，那么其在市场上的实现波动率最低，低于必需消费品和公用事业股。这些股票所固有的风险包括周期性、技术中断和监管/反垄断疑虑。FAAMG股票今年市值增加了6000亿美元，相当于香港和南非的国内生产总值之和，其超越大盘的表现已经催生了极端持仓、拥挤因子和难以解释的风险，逆转风险正在增加。受高盛报告引起科技股大跌影响，中概股集体下跌：京东大跌7%阿里、百度跌超2%京东暴跌近7%美股科技板块暴跌，盘中时刻，苹果一度暴跌将近6%，市值蒸发逾400亿美元。小编现在也没有找到高盛的报告全文，那么看看美国媒体的报道吧。Apple, Facebook and other big tech stocks tank, weigh on Wall StreetFacebook, Apple, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Microsoft all fell more than 3 percent Friday as investors rotated out of the stocks.The group has been the market's leaders and is behind about 40 percent of its performance this year.Goldman Sachs analyzed the group and finds it has some advantages and disadvantages when compared to the tech leaders before the tech bubble burst in 2000.Big tech was slammed Friday as investors took profits from the group, which some fear has become a massive market bubble.The sell-off accelerated in afternoon trading, with the Nasdaq falling 2.4 percent, and names like Facebook and Apple, down 4 percent. The S&P tech sector was down 3.3 percent Friday but was still up 18 percent for the year.Goldman Sachs on Friday released a report on the top five outperforming mega-cap names in tech with some warnings on valuations and concerns that their volatility has become extraordinarily low. In fact, the stocks had become closely correlated to safe haven plays, like bonds and utilities.Goldman studied the valuations of the tech leaders, known as the FAAMG — for Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet (Google). (It left out Netflix from the original FANG, since its impact on the S&P 500 is still too small.)What it found is that the current-day tech stocks have advantages in cash flow, valuation and cash balances over the top five tech names in the first quarter of 2000 — just before the bubble burst. But the current group is behind in profitability, as measured by gross profits and total assets. The tech bubble names Goldman studied included Lucent, Cisco, Oracle and Intel. Microsoft was the only stock to make both listsThe FAAMG names have added a total of $600 billion of market capitalization this year — the equivalent of the GDP of Hong Kong and South Africa combined, says Goldman. The group makes up about 13 percent of the S&P 500, but hasaccounted for almost 40 percent of its year-to-date performance. The stocks are among the top holdings of hedge funds. The analysts noted that mutual funds, aimed at core, growth and value, are overweight all but Apple, and the five companies combined are 11.8 percent of those mutual fund holdings.The analysts said that momentum and growth as market factors are elevated and the tech names are appealing because investors may be looking for opportunities that are not dependent on policy changes in Washington.UBS also commented on the FAAMG group of big tech stocks Friday. Julian Emanuel, equity and derivatives analyst, still likes tech but says they could be vulnerable in the near term as investors rotate to other groups."That could be a short-term headwind given the outperformance. But the long-term earnings growth story remains intact," he said. Emanuel noted there were four times when a handful of tech names became so powerful. Twice, it ended badly—after 1999 and 2007. But they also were leaders in 1993 and 2005.He said it's notable that on the previous occasions, Microsoft fell 62.8 percent after the 2000 bubble and was down 45.4 in the financial crisis in 2008. "Such declines now appear as blips on a long-term chart," Emanuel noted.The FAAMG group does break some historic trends. Goldman Sachs says the volatility in the FAAMG bloc is lower than not only the S&P 500, but the staples sector and utilities. The group continues to be closely tied to tech and discretionary stocks, but it has also started trading more with the other sectors following the U.S. election and its correlation to staples and utilities is at a five-year high."Steady sales growth, rising cash balances and limited market shocks have dampened realizedvolatility to the point that they now look more like consumer staples than tech stocks. If FAAMG was its own sector it would screen with the lowest realized volatility," the Goldman analysts wrote.But they also noted that investors are using the group as a bond proxy. "Since November, correlation has turned negative suggesting that higher bond yields, typically associated with stronger growth, will weigh on stocks while falling bond yields are a good thing," they said, adding it runs counter to history.While they may be loved, today's tech darlings aren't without potential flaws."We believe low realized volatility can potentially lead people to underestimate the risks inherent in these businesses including cyclical exposure, potential regulations regarding online activity or antitrust concerns or disruption risk as they encroach into each other's businesses," the Goldman analysts noted.Momentum in the group "has built a valuation air pocket" and is "creating cause for pause," they wrote."The fear is that if fundamental events cause volatility to rise, these same passive vehicles will sell and exacerbate downside volatility," they added. Goldman points to a warning in the options markets, which is pricing in more volatility for the companies when looking at options three months out, and prices suggest the FAAMG stocks would be more volatile than the average stock in 6 of 9 major sectors, including tech.Free cash flow for FAAMG has plateaued after doubling between 2006 and 2016, and at the same time the group has increased capital expenditures to 17 percent while cash flow from operations grew at less than 10 percent. Cash levels have also plateaued as a percent of market cap.Comparison of FAAMG stocks to 2000 tech bubble leadersBut when looking back at theyear 2000, all five companies have eight times more cash than the bigtech stocks had in the bubble. Free cash margins are modestly better than the tech bubble companies but yields are higher.Goldman said that the gross profits and total assets were significantly higher for the tech bubble names and that could be because today's businesses have become more capital intensive. Return on invested capital was also higher but that may be because companies now are using accelerated depreciation.As for size, the FAAMG stocks are almost 30 percent bigger and they aren't as large a portion of the S&P, 13 percent compared with 15.8 percent in 2000. FAAMG is an even larger 43 percent of Nasdaq and provided 55 percent of its gains so far this year.During the bubble, the five largest tech names were trading at almost 60 times two-year forward earnings, with the cheapest stock trading at 36 times. Now FAAMG trades at 23 times forward two-year earnings with only one, Amazon, over 30 times."While FANG has dominated investor focus, the nature of the acronym has expanded more broadly to encompass mega-cap tech. Indeed, the bigger story in our view is FAAMG," said Goldman Sachs in a research report.The companies representing FAAMG added $600 billion in market cap this year, equal to the gross domestic products of Hong Kong and South Africa combined. Thanks to investor demand for these money-makers, they also now have lest volatility than utilities, an upside-down scenario that adds to concern the stocks are nearing a top.While these five stocks are performing well, there are concerns their heavy presence and lofty prices could parallel the tech bubble of the early 2000s. However,Goldman notes FAAMG carries several advantages, notably lower valuations and better cash balances.Forget the FANGs: Goldman Sachs has adopted a new acronym for the most powerful drivers of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq."While FANG has dominated investor focus, the nature of the acronym has expanded more broadly to encompass mega-cap tech," Robert Boroujerdi and his colleagues wrote in a note on Friday."Indeed, the bigger story in our view is FAAMG — Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet — a group of five stocks which have been the key drivers of both the SPX & NDX returns year-to date."Combined, the FAAMG stocks have added $660 billion in market value this year.As with FANG, the G in FAAMG represents Google, the best-known company under the Alphabet umbrella. FAAMG also adds Apple to the list. But Goldman excluded Netflix, the N in FANG, and Nvidia, the red-hot tech stock that is up 249% in the past year, saying they are not yet large enough and are more volatile.The FAAMG stocks on the other hand are displaying lower volatility, much as the rest of the market is. As its own sector, FAAMG would have the lowest volatility in the market, Goldman says, though that could end up being a problem."We believe low realized volatility can potentially lead people to underestimate the risks inherent in these businesses including cyclical exposure, potential regulations regarding online activity or antitrust concerns or disruption risk as they encroach into each other’s businesses," Boroujerdi wrote.Goldman expects that passive investors who are chasing a low-volatility strategy would move into the FAAMGs. "The fear is that if fundamental events cause volatility to rise, these same passive vehicles will sell and exacerbate downside volatility,"当然，中国的科技公司在搞AI，顺便看一个麦格里的报告China Internet Embracing AI and roboticsBaidu focuses its future on AIChinese leader in the AI space. Baidu, as China’s largest search engine, has seen its investment in AI accelerate since hiring Dr. Lu Qi as the new Chief Operating Officer in Jan 2017. It currently operates four research labs (Augmented Reality, AI, Deep Learning, and Big Data) across Beijing and Silicon Valley. Some of its AI technology, such as speed and image recognition, is world-leading. The AI has been applied to Search, Duer (similar to Siri), Autonomous Driving, Cloud and other products. Driverless cars are approaching the commercialization stage. Among the AI-enabled products within Baidu, driverless cars present the best growth and commercialization opportunities. It has merged its L3 (eyes off) and L4 (mind off) autonomous driving business into a single group (IDG) which is now led by Lu Qi. Baidu launched the “Apollo Project” in April 2017 to open its autonomous driving platforms (hardware + software + cloud) to car manufacturers to develop autonomous vehicles. Baidu has already partnered with local OEMs incl. Cherry, BYD and BAIC Motor. In terms of development timeline, Baidu plans to share its technology for simple urban road conditions by the end of 2017, with the ultimate goal of being fully autonomous on highways and open city roads by 2020.Alibaba embeds AI across businessesEmpowering e-Commerce and cloud. Alibaba is building up AI on large-scale computing power and data, and is exploring the potential to embed AI into various business lines. For its core e-commerce, Alibaba is applying AI algorithms to shopping experience, to upgrade supply chain management, and to improve
Alibaba Cloud is introducing AI services to healthcare and man and Alibaba’s affiliate Ant Financial is working on face-recognition technology to secure e-payments. Cooperation with business partners. In addition, Ant Financial acquired EyeVerify in Sep 2015 for its biometric authentication technology. EyeVerify checks identities through eye-vein patterns and creates digital eye print IDs. Alibaba has also established Alibaba Robotics, a joint venture with SoftBank, to operate the Pepper robot business in China. Softbank has sold 10,000 Pepper robots in the Japanese market. In China, Pepper will be powered by Alibaba’s YunOS operating system and will help scan traveller ID cards and print boarding passes.Tencent playing catch-up on AIBoosting AI lab and R&D capabilities. Among BAT, Tencent started relatively late in the field of AI. But it has been boosting its R&D talents since 2016.Tencent recently opened an artificial intelligence research facility in Seattle, US, to be led by former Microsoft scientist Yu Dong. This will strengthen its AI capabilities in addition to the existing AI lab of about 50+ researchers and 200 engineers in Shenzhen. Voice, AI open source and cloud collaboration.Tencent launched its Alexa-like AI voice assistant Dingdang in Apr 2017.Tencent will integrate Dingdang into its apps and ecosystem with services including weather, news, music and LBS. Further, Tencent plans to open source its AI computing platform called Angel with a focus on machine learning techniques. Tencent applies them internally in areas such as video streaming and social ads. In terms of Tencent Cloud, its offering comes with AI services including face detection and optical character recognition, and Tencent recently adopted NVIDIA Tesla for AI cloud computing.1.【获得报告】扫一扫下面二维码给群主点赞，同时转发朋友圈， 写下留言或私信，就可获得文中提到的各种研究报告全文链接。2.【加入讨论】著名券商PE/VC已经加入。扫一扫下面二维码给群主点赞，并转发朋友圈，同时在留言中留下实名制信息（姓名+公司+手机+微信+研究方向），审核通过可加入宏观讨论群，交流各种研究报告和成果。 3.【点一点最简单】想每天看到新的报告！最简单支持群猪的方法：点一下文章最后的广告！走过路过不要错过，点一点对你也没有损失！4.转载请注明出处，联系一下更好！文章只是读报告的信息集合，不构成任何投资建议。
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[股市360]美股也遭闪崩突袭 交易员叹2018牛市之路不好走
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　　上周，A股个股现“闪崩潮”。就在周五，仍享受着牛市甘霖的美股也突然闪崩――道指大跌2.5%(650点)，这也是自2016年6月英国脱欧公投以来美股创下的最大单日跌幅。
　　有什么负面消息吗？财报不如预期吗？经济衰退了吗？交易员们都在思索。恰恰上述原因都不存在。相反，不少企业的最新财报都超出预期，美国经济仍在持续扩张中，上周五公布的非农就业人数上升20万人，远高于预期的17.7万，薪资增速逼近3%。
　　“量化紧缩的预期升温。过去很长时间，美股都呈现出‘跌了就买’的格局，非农数据公布后股市上涨的概率居多，但如果加息持续，原来很多市场特征就都不能做数了。”资深美股交易员朱凯文(Kevin)告诉第一财经记者。
　　不过，多数机构依旧认为美股仍在牛市通道中。“我不认为这次大跌就是熊市开始，仍然是回调，税改的刺激仍在，全球经济也在扩张，只是2018年更加考验选股能力以及对估值的把握，相比于这几年大涨的大盘股，受益于税改、并购机会、通胀的低负债，优质小盘股胜率可能更高。”阿尔杰投资管理(Alger Investment Management)基金经理张韵则对记者表示。
　　此外，大盘权重科技股FAAMG(脸书、苹果、亚马逊、微软、Alphabet)，除了亚马逊外，其他全部呈现2%-5%的巨大跌幅，拖累指数。张韵认为，作为各大基金、指数重仓股的FAAMG，今年更易遭遇回调压力。
　　牛市突遇“闪崩”
　　截至上周，标普500指数一年涨幅高达21%，道指更是高达28%。而上周，道指跌幅达4.1%，创下2016年1月以来最大单周跌幅，标志着今年市场将更加动荡。
　　“是不是很疯狂？我觉得是。会不会崩盘，其实没人知道。美股长期是否看好？我没理由现在很严肃的看空。我能做的是减少美股的仓位，去投一些能看懂的东西。”资深美股交易员司徒捷感叹。他也对记者表示，近期股市资金可能会部分回流债市。
　　司徒捷进一步分析称：“每次道指偏离月线图太远，都会被拉回。如果股市还在一个大致的牛市中，短期的拉回都有可能打击到200月均线。”
　　道指大幅偏离200月均线
　　同时，美国也有个“韭菜”指数，零售券商的交易量基本反映了美国韭菜们的接盘侠行为热度，而目前该指数已到历史顶点。
　　面对此次闪崩，有观点认为，前期美股涨幅过高、估值扩张空间受限，而加息预期的升温成了压垮市场的最后一根稻草。此次，不仅非农就业人数大涨，连美联储最关注的薪资增速也高达2.9%，“利率期货”Fedwatch显示，3月加息25个基点的概率高达77.5%，各界也预计美联储今年将加息2-3次，但如果通胀超出预期，紧缩的速度会更快。
　　“统计不难发现，非农数据后股市大多是涨的，但前提是量化宽松(QE)锁定国债利率，现在这个锚没有了，30 年国债收益率逼近3.1%，再涨到3.5%的话，市场压力就更大了。”Kevin告诉记者。
　　其实，2017年以来，支持美股大幅上涨的动力无非两个，一个是低利率下的估值扩张，另一个是企业盈利上升。如今在流动性边际紧缩的背景下，光靠盈利扩张难以支持美股快速上行。
　　Kevin也表示，各界的担忧还在于，周六美联储主席耶伦正式卸任，尽管接班人鲍威尔看似是一个“中立派”，但究竟是否会为市场带来意外仍不得而知。他也提及，就好比当年的美联储主席伯南克，在上任前，他是“直升机撒钱”的支持者；而其上任后，美联储2006年6月就开始加息，金融危机后开始降息、实行QE；2013年，伯南克暗示未来可能退出QE的言论又导致市场出现抛售，新兴市场资金外流，被称为“退出恐慌”(taper tantrum)。
　　牛市未尽，小盘股或跑赢
　　悲观情绪总能以星火燎原之势蔓延，但更多的基金经理倾向于认为，这仍然是美股牛市中的一波调整。
　　“全球经济不错，又是由美国引领的，企业盈利增速持续超预期，没理由认为牛市会就此结束，还有税改的长期刺激。”张韵告诉记者，“但回调幅度会比较厉害，盈利低于预期的个股会受到市场更严厉的冲击，盈利好的个股所获得的上行动能较之前更为有限。”
　　“未来5年美股出现10%回调的概率从过去的40%上升到70%，今年市场出现大幅回调的可能性很高，相比较，非美国股票市场的长期回报前景更好。”全球最大公募基金Vanguard亚太区首席经济学家王黔此前对第一财经记者表示。
　　在这一背景下，张韵也认为，优质小盘股跑赢的机会更大，有可能重演年的行情。“小盘股的海外敞口低于20%，更受益于美国税改，基本都能享受到10%的有效税率下降幅度，而且如果投资的是创新型企业，这些企业会拿多余的资本用于再投资，或是股票回购，这会助推每股盈利(EPS)长期增长。”
　　值得注意的是，正是由于税改，在1月开始的美股财报季中，不少公司出现了一次性的亏损。例如，高盛早前表示，税改将导致公司盈利减少50亿美元左右。根据公告，三分之二的影响源自一次性汇回境外利润的税务开支，三分之一源自递延税资产(deferred tax asset)减值。
　　科技公司也栽了跟头，例如，刚公布财报的谷歌母公司Alphabet，去年四季度营收为323.23美亿元，由于税改，Alphabet计入99亿美元额外税收支出，从而导致净亏损30.2亿美元。
　　短期内，更低的税率将在重新评估时影响企业递延税项资产和负债，一些企业可能提前在第四财季计提费用或进行减计。递延税项资产是未来预计可以用来抵税的资产，而由于减税，这部分资产将缩水。
　　“但这不会对市场造成长期冲击，一次性的减值影响，市场都已经充分理解，减税长期而言仍然利好市场。”张韵告诉记者。
　　警惕FAAMG回调
　　此次，科技股也拖累了大盘，尤其是FAAMG这几个“大块头”。上周最后一个交易日，Facebook跌1.46%，苹果跌4.34%，微软跌2.63%，Alphabet跌4.78%，只有亚马逊大涨2.87%。
　　Facebook在最新财报中披露，去年四季度美国和加拿大的日活跃用户数出现首次环比下滑，由上个季度的1.85亿下降为1.84亿，用户平均每天在Facebook上停留的时间减少了5000万个小时。这对于互联网巨头而言是致命的。
　　“Facebook正站在十字路口。”这是本月早些时候Facebook创始人扎克伯格对公司的描述。不过， Facebook依然在享受转型移动互联网带来的红利。来自于移动端的广告收入占到全部广告收入的89%，较去年同期的84%进一步增长。
　　跌幅最大的Alphabet四季度业绩超出华尔街预期，营收为323.2亿美元，高于分析师平均预计的318.5亿美元。然而，由于递延税资产减值的关系，净利润为-30.2亿美元，每股亏损4.35美元，大幅低于去年同期的净利润53.3亿美元和每股收益7.56美元。
　　Alphabet的成功基于一项业务，这就是谷歌，是唯一盈利的业务部门。属于谷歌的业务包括搜索、互联网、YouTube、Gmail和开发Pixel手机等产品的硬件部门。网络广告营收占谷歌总营收的比例高达约85%，这也促使Alphabet去探索其他收入来源。
　　谷歌支付给合作伙伴的成本不断上升。由于用户在智能手机上的搜索越来越多，谷歌就移动端搜索支付给合作伙伴的费用更高，流量获得成本同比大涨33%，这也打击了股价。
　　苹果的暴跌主要由于智能手机业务。在最新财报中，苹果销售收入和利润再次创造了纪录，获得880亿美元收入，收入增加的一个主要原因是手机平均价格上调。然而，在过去两个星期中，供应链爆出苹果下调iPhone X生产计划的消息，据称一季度产量从4000万部缩减到2000万部。近期已经有多家金融机构下调了苹果股票的评级和目标股价。
　　逆势上涨的亚马逊四季度财报里有两大亮点，分别为净利润再创新高、云业务增速回升。亚马逊四季度实现净利润19亿美元，较上年同期7.49亿美元增长154%，每股盈利为3.75美元，均超此前分析师预期，这已是亚马逊连续11个季度盈利；亚马逊AWS云服务第四季度净销售额为51.13亿美元，比上年同期的35.36亿美元增长45%。
　　市场分析师认为，亚马逊对仓储业务的早期投入，已经对公司业绩产生了积极影响。去年第四季度，随着亚马逊配送成本的降低，推动其运营利润率达到3.5%，创出自2010年以来第四季度的最好水平。
　　尽管众多机构仍然看好FAAMG今年的发展潜力，但高估值、反垄断呼声渐强、减税受益较少等都可能加剧科技股回调。张韵也对记者表示，FAAMG的交易已经太过拥挤，当其成为各大主动、被动型基金的重仓股后，一旦趋势逆转，很难避免出现较大的回调。
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