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作者:斋自强
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上海除老鼠_上海除鼠_捷众生物防治-行业官方推荐近期期权市场成交活跃吸引了不少量化私募的关注,期权品种被作为量化投资领域新的“蓝海”,部分量化私募在经过2015年至今的观察和摸索后开始加大布局力度。业内人士表示,明年期权策略或将延续之前的稳健表现,并在市场波动率回升的趋势中进一步提升投资回报。  私募加速发行期权策略产品  今年下半年,不少量化私募在期权市场上的布局动作明显,甚至将其作为一条特色产品线打造,在投研上加大配置力度。  双隆投资相关人士表示,近期计划新发期权混合策略产品。淘利资产也表示,今年不仅在原有产品中加入了期权策略,还在今年12月份成立了一只期权策略产品。易善资产也表示,在期权策略上有所运用。  据了解,量化期权策略展现出同量化股票、管理期货策略完全不同的风险收益特征,具有较为明显的低风险。  事实上,从2015年50ETF股票期权推出,便有私募基金开始关注和布局。到2016年期权交易的活跃度有了明显的提升,直到今年年中,相关私募产品的推出才开始陆续增加。  双隆投资称,在2014年初,国内交易所仍在对期权品种进行讨论和开发测试时,便引进了海外期权专家布局各类型期权量化策略,在2015年50ETF期权上市伊始便开始期权实盘交易,经过测试之后,到2016年6月开始推出阳光化量化期权投资基金。  尽管多有布局,但各家的策略也有差异。淘利资产期权投资部投资总监党玮睿称,淘利资产的整体策略是围绕隐含波动率的相对价值进行交易,方向中性,不依赖50ETF的涨跌,更关注隐波率曲面映射到50ETF收益率分布上的合理性。  易善资产介绍,目前公司在期权策略的运用上,一方面是用来对冲大盘风险,二是做市商策略,对期权盘口双边报价,通过提供流通性赚取盘口买卖的差价。不过,目前做市商策略容量有限,主要由少数券商的自营在做。  期权市场流动性和活跃度提升  在多位量化私募人士看来,近期布局期权策略的力度提升,主要是由于近期期权市场成交活跃,市场流动性提供了支持。  党玮睿称,如今50ETF稳定在日均百万张之上,能够承担一定规模的交易量。双隆投资也对此表示,和2015年及2016年相比,今年期权市场虽然套利机会明显下降、但市场流动性和成交活跃度明显提升。因此,期权量化策略在收益水平保持稳健的同时,交易冲击明显下降、策略容量大大提升,这些市场变化都是有利于大部分期权量化策略。  牧鑫资产董事长张杰平表示,近期期权市场成交活跃的原因主要有两个,一是上证50最近的波动很大,不少市场投机者通过期权非线性的特征和杠杆特性短期投机。二是市场波动突然变大,买权方和卖权方对后期波动率的预期不一致,所以期权在价格发现过程中有频繁博弈。交易量的增加,说明国内期权的参与者在快速增加。  双隆投资预计,明年期权策略将延续之前的稳健表现,并在市场波动率回升的趋势中进一步提升投资回报。易善资产则称,2017年中国市场乃至全球市场都创造了波动率的低点,明年有一定概率波动率反弹,做多波动率的期权策略或有比较好的表现。(责任编辑: HN666)和讯网今天刊登了《(证券时报)期权市场活跃度提升 量化私募加速布局》一文,关于此事的更多报道,请在和讯财经客户端上阅读。
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[买入评级]POLY REAL ESTATE GROUP(600048):THE FOLLOW-ON INVESTMENT IS CONFIRMED INDICATING A MORE COMPR.-[中财网]    Company Profile Poly Real Estate Group Co. Ltd is a large scale central-owned real estate company, held by China PolyGroup Corporation. It has been the leading company in real estate for five consecutive years. Founded in 1992, Poly Real Estate Group was listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2006. In 2013, itwon the second place in overall strength and the first place in risk management. By 2014, the totalassets exceeded CNY 360 billion, with contract value of CNY 136.67 billion and CNY 154.10 billion in2014. (Source: company’s official website)Event: In December 22th, Poly Real Estate Group declared that its board of directors passed theproposal on follow-on investment in real estate, authorizing managers to make detailed regulationsand carry them out. The proposal stipulates that the maximum of follow-on investment in one singleproject will not exceed 10% of the peak of overall funding. Comments The follow-on investment regulations are improved, contributing to sustained sales growth. Itmarks a breakthrough of the incentive system. Given the rapid development within this industry, theten leading companies pay close attention to expanding market share, and prioritize enlarging thescales. Highlighting the follow-on investment system enables Poly to grow at a fast pace, maintainingleadership in real estate. Sales registered robust growth. Poly actively invested in land. The first 11 months in 2017 sawcumulative sales amount of CNY 274.2 billion, with 45.16% increase YoY. And cumulative sales areawas 1.99 million sqm, increasing 39.53%. The sales amount of the year may well reach CNY300billion. Besides, Poly added land reserve for construction, implying floor area of 3.21 million sqm. Land investment accounted for 74% of sales amount, 17 percentage points higher than last year. Through other approaches such as M&A, it further enriched its land reserve, laying foundation for arelatively high sales target in the following three years. The central-owned enterprise has significant superiority in financing. Poly is competitive inresource integration. In 2017, Poly Real Estate Group acquired 50% stake in Poly Property Group(0119.HK) for CNY 5.15 billion, receiving land reserve of about 20 million sqm, thus avoidinghorizontal competition. In the first half year, Poly has done the purchase of 8.22 million sqm capacitybuilding area for twenty projects of Avic Real Estate (000043.SZ)。 Abundant resources indicatefinancing advantage. Its overall financing cost decreased from 7.0% in 2013 to 4.4% in 2016, muchlower than the industry average. Investment recommendation: Poly Real Estate Group benefits from the upward trend offundamentals in the first- and second- tier cities. Its current valuation is at 32% discount to its RNAV,implying reasonable margin of safety. We estimate its EPS in 2017 at CNY 1.21, CNY 1.57 in 2018,implying 10.8x 17E PE and 8.3x 18E PE. Therefore, we remain BUY rating for this company. Potential risks: Monetary policies may be much tighter. Capital outflow caused by Trump’s tax cutand stricter-than-expected regulations in core cities may bring about risks.
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