中国人购房能力提高 在建住宅可满足五年需求 - 数据 -汕头乐居网
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中国人购房能力提高 在建住宅可满足五年需求
来源：新浪乐居汕头站
&&惠誉最新报告称，由于中国内地房地产开发商融资渠道更加通畅、监管方面的不确定性降低，预计中国住房建设活动将在2013年增长。鉴于2012年上半年房地产销售疲软，2013年上半年销量同比增速可能高于下半年。
&&中国官方数据显示，去年第四季度中国GDP(国内生产总值)同比增长7.8%，呈加速趋势，高于第三季度7.4%的增速。同时，据《华尔街日报》文章指出，数据显示，2009年以来，中国城镇居民平均可支配收入增加了约43%，房价仅上涨了11%。尽管以平均收入计算，中国人全款购买一套均价公寓现在需要大约16年收入，明显高于其他国家(美国房价一般是居民平均年收入的5倍左右)，但已低于2007年，当时买套房需要21年收入。这已经足以提振楼市真实需求，帮助房价与居民收入接轨，为中国房地产市场注入新活力。在中国内地房价一度涨到惊人高位之后，中国政府最高决策层决定出手遏制房价涨势，使居民收入增长有机会反超，使城市中等收入群体购房能力有所提高。
&&当真实需求回暖，可以肯定中国房价又将缓慢回升。根据某网站数据，1月份中国城市住宅均价同比上涨0.03%，结束八个月下降之势。两级政府对房价的打压使得上海楼市均价已两年持平。在严厉调控抑制房价上涨三年后，中国房地产开发商也再次变得谨慎乐观。中国内地收入规模最大的房地产开发商万科[财报称，去年12月公司销售额同比增长一倍多，2012年全年销售额增长了16.2%。大型房地产开发商的股票出现反弹。中国海外是香港股票交易所表现最好的股票之一，股价较2012年初大涨了逾90%，而整个大盘仅上涨了26%。显然，大型房地产开发商从强劲的财务状况和庞大的规模中受益，并开建新盘。2012年11月在建新楼面面积同比增长6.3%，此前在这一年的大部分时间都呈同比下降。瑞士信贷分析师预计，2013年中国内地建筑活动将会走强。
&&众所周知，房地产是中国经济增长主要推动力之一，对钢铁、水泥、家具和家电等行业也有重要影响。《华尔街日报》另一篇报道中引用麦格理分析师的话称，钢铁厂预期接下来一年来自房地产的需求更加旺盛。2012年上半年中国钢铁产量同比持平，11月实现15%的增长。铁矿石价格的上涨促使澳大利亚FortescueMetals Group重启此前停顿的12亿美元投资项目。
&&然而，中国内地房地产市场此次复苏的起点很低。大城市2012年成交量较2011年明显上升是基于2010年和2011年很低的增长率。三年调控抬高了房地产开发商的债务和库存。即使没有新盘开工，在建的住宅也足以满足市场大约五年的需求，高于2009年的比例2.9年。另外，房地产行业内部分化非常突出。小型开发商将继续受制于有限的财务能力，在低流动性和严格调控环境下仍易受到冲击。
&&我以为，长期看，中国内地房地产市场增长将受到城镇化进程以及家庭收入增长的支撑，但下一届中国政府将继续实施住房限购政策，继续努力遏制房价过度上涨。尽管中国住房和城乡建设部官员曾吹风，除了支持购买首套房，政府也将支持购买改善型住房购买者获得按揭贷款，但中国内地房地产市场欲重现当年繁荣还有待时日。一旦住宅价格大幅上涨，中央政府可能再次加强调控。(陈序)
消息来源：东方网
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2018年监管部门对于乱象整治工作中的大案要案会坚持顶格处罚。
北京怡生乐居信息服务有限公司
北京市海淀区北四环西路58号理想国际大厦806-810室
乐居房产、家居产品用户服务、产品咨询购买、技术支持客服服务热线：新房、二手房：400-606-6969 &家居、抢工长：400-010-2323瑞银研报：中国人正在全球拼命买房，买完香港新加坡美国英国，下一站是哪里？
UBS证据实验室报告：中国人全球置业调查——购买者、政策、负担能力
基本结论：
Chinese buying abroad: When, why and how?
中国人在国外买买买：何时、为什么、如何买？
差不多三分之二的中国人海外购房全部是现金！
Our UBS Evidence Lab survey of 3,060 Chinese consumers shows a rising trend in
mainland consumer ownership of residential property abroad with 78% of offshore
purchases occurring in the last 5-years. Half of properties purchased are for self-use.Three quarters of those purchased for investment and being rented to a tenant. Almost two-thirds of purchas those seeking finance tend to borrow from Chinese banks. Tightened capital controls are having a greater influence on buying now than our past survey, in some cases delaying the decision to buy, in others hastening it.
Affordability, leverage and policy: what really matters for residential prices?
负担能力，杠杆和政策：对中国人来说住宅价格真正重要？
On affordability and leverage metrics, Indonesia, Philippines and the US ranks best with Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong ranking more poorly. Improving affordability will support demand and deteriorating affordability may slow demand, but it's unlikely to cause a housing cycle to crash. Our multivariate regression models and back-testing of different economic data show the variables most important for the residential cycle (ie price growth or falls) are GDP growth (synonymous with employment), mortgage rates and residential supply. In our report we also look at the effectiveness of macro prudential policy measures in slowing residential activity.
What does it all mean?
这意味着什么？我们推荐像世茂那样更有支撑力的中档名牌
The China developers are pricing in stronger residential sales than we expect. There is downside risk to share prices in our view if sales slow in line with our forecasts. We favour the mid-cap names where valuations are more supportive like Shimao. The HK developers are pricing in residential price growth marginally ahead of our expectations. Despite the strong rally YTD, valuations are in line with historic averages. We favour SHKP & Henderson Land which benefits most from farmland conversion. The market appears to pricing in risks of a slower Australian housing cycle in the multiple it's applying to the development earnings for Mirvac & Stockland, but not a deep downcycle. The down-side risks are increasing. We favour Mirvac. Among EM names we prefer Megaworld and Vista Land (Phils), Ciputra (Indonesia) and Supalai (Thailand).
Q: Chinese buying of residential abroad: when,why & how?
Over the last five-years Chinese buying of new build residential property in
gateway cities has underpinned demand, construction activity and arguably prices.
Buyers tend to be price and currency aware. Chinese buying activity peaked in
London in 2015 and likely peaked in Australia in 2016. The pace of buying in Hong
Kong picked up over 2016. Evidence is emerging to suggest Chinese buyer interestin South East Asia, more specifically Thailand, is now occurring.
Our survey shows a rising trend in mainland consumer ownership of residential
property abroad with 78% of offshore purchases occurring in the last 5-years. Half
of properties purchases are for self-use with three quarters of those purchased for
investment being rented to a tenant. Almost two-thirds of purchases are cash
those seeking finance tend to borrow from Chinese Banks. Tightened
capital controls are having a greater influence on buying now than our past survey,
in some cases delaying the decision to buy, in others hastening it.
Chinese buyers active in gateway cities
We partnered with UBS Evidence Lab to survey 3,060 mainland chinese
consumers, well diversified by geography, age and income. Our survey shows a
rising trend of mainland consumers owning residential property abroad, notable
given our survey doesn't capture high net worth consumers. (full survey results).
While buyers from the mainland have favoured Singapore, Canada, US and
Australia for purchases, we are seeing growing interest in South East Asia, more
specifically Thailand, perhaps in recognition of China's 'One Belt One Road'
(OBOR) programme and the substantial infrastructure investment occurring,
together with attractive pricing (absolute value and rental yield).
特别是泰国，也许在中国的“一带一路（OBOR）项目和大量的基础设施投资情况下，这些地产具有非常有吸引力的定价（绝对值和租金收益率）。
Our survey shows the chief reason for investment abroad continues to be 'good
investment / good potential returns'. Having followed Chinese capital flows into
residential markets around the world, we note that buyers tend to be 'price aware'
and 'currency aware'.
Other key considerations as shown below include the comfort of large Chinese
communities, a robust legal system, together with lifestyle.
46% of respondents that have purchased an overseas property bought in the last
two years, illustrating how recent a phenomenon is Chinese capital flows into
residential markets in gateway cities. In fact, 19% of property bought abroad is
still under construction. And, only 22% of property owned abroad has been
owned for 5 years or more.
The reasons for buying abroad are varied. Our survey showed half of consumers
who bought abroad bought for self-use, with half of these buyers using the
property on a permanent basis and half on a temporary basis - maybe holidays,
business travel or to visit children studying.
Our survey showed just more than half of consumers bought for investment, with
three quarters of them renting out the property and the remainder leaving the
property vacant.
Our survey shows the proportion of apartments purchased by mainland Chinese
and left vacant is ~14%. However, a further 26% of overseas property owners use
their property on a temporary basis suggesting as much as 40% of the overseas
property owned by mainland Chinese may not be fully utilised. This may have
ramifications for the vibrancy of the surrounding retail space and amenity of the
Almost two-thirds of consumers purchased their offshore property using cash. Of
the third who borrowed, 85% used a Chinese bank not a local bank. 6% have
purchased off the plan but not yet financed their purchase.
While investors and the media in Australia have been concerned by settlement risk
attached to Chinese consumers not being able to secure a mortgage with a local
bank. We have been less concerned, given evidence suggests the vast majority of
mainland Chinese consumers buying abroad financed their purchases with cash or
with mortgages from Chinese banks.
74% of the respondents have no interest in buying overseas properties.
For the quarter of respondents interested in buying abroad, Hong Kong,
Singapore, Taiwan and Canada rank highest on the list.
However, their enquiries may lead them to learn of the additional foreigner stamp
duty in places like Hong Kong and Singapore, which may dampen their
enthusiasm. Although we note in Hong Kong, some developers have been willing
to rebate (in whole or in part) the foreigner stamp duty to attract foreign buyers.
Interest in Thailand at 4% is on par with New York, Sydney and Melbourne as a
place of interest to buy and supports our analyst view that interest in Thailand
could continue to pick-up. While we don't have the back-history for Thailand – as
we only included it as a separate option this survey, 'other' has been less than 1%
over the last 4 survey periods, suggesting Thailand would have been negligible. We will continue to monitor in future surveys.
Somewhat surprisingly, tightened capital controls haven't greatly impacted
Chinese consumers' willingness to buy abroad, although capital controls do appearto be affecting more consumers now than 6-months ago - some hastening their purchase while others are delaying their purchase.
Wealth management products are consumer's most preferred asset class for
investment, followed by savings in the bank and investment in Chinese residential
properties
How significant is foreign & Chinese buying of residential?
In the following pages, we drill down into foreign buying of residential property in
some select countries. Chinese buyers tend to focus on new-build apartments, in
prime locations in gateway cities such as Singapore, Hong Kong, London, Toronto,
and Sydney. Foreign buyer median price point tends to be marginally higher than
local buyers but not materially so.
Foreign buyers are more likely to be cash buyers, and the property is less likely to
be fully utilised when compared with local buyers. For the cities we have studied
below, foreign buyers are often 10-20% of the new build dwellings for sale, but
we recognise data can be difficult to obtain with a high level of accuracy.
Foreign buying of Singapore residential: The story in pictures
Foreign buying has long been a feature of the Singapore market, with foreign
buyers including Malaysians, mainland Chinese and Indians. The introduction of
the foreigner stamp duty in Dec-11 and further increase in Jan-13 slowed
momentum, but triggered only a short-term decline in foreign buying as illustrated
in the charts below.
Chinese buying of HK residential: The story in pictures
Mainland Chinese buying of Hong Kong residential gained momentum over 2007
through to 2011. Mainland Chinese demand softened with the introduction of the
foreigner stamp duty in October 2012, which coincided with concerns over the
peaking of the Hong Kong residential cycle. High residential prices has meant
Hong Kong developers have been willing to rebate the foreigner stamp duty, in
some cases, absorbing the cost into their 'costs of goods sold' for the project,
helping to facilitate sales. The increase in mainland Chinese buying activity in 2016
corresponded with growing expectations that the RMB would depreciate with
mainland Chinese buyers seeking HKD/USD investments.
Foreign buying of US residential: The story in pictures
The latest trends - Australia
Settlement risk… and foreign purchasers
An ongoing concern in the Australian market has been one of settlement risk for
new build apartments, particularly after local banks tightened and/or stopped
lending to foreign buyers in May/June 2016. As a reminder, in Australia buyers will
put down a 10% deposit when buying off the plan, with the balance (ie 90% of
the purchase price) payable at the time of completion, which for an apartment
tower may be 2-3 years later.
To date, investors' fears have not been realised. Default rates for top tier
developers Mirvac and Lend Lease were less than 2% at June 2017 results and
improved slightly from December 2016 reporting. Clearly, one contributing factor
has been strong residential price appreciation, meaning buyers who purchased off
the plan 2-3 years ago are well in-the-money, providing a strong incentive to settle
and leading to a number of non-bank lenders willing to step into the void left by
local banks.
Brisbane is a live case study: What happens when foreign apartment
buyers are not in-the-money?
An interesting case study is now playing out in Brisbane. Settlements will peak over the coming quarter. The Brisbane apartment market is over-built in our view
residential prices largely tracking side-ways for the last two years. Re-sale prices are 10% or more below purchase price and bank valuations are frequently below the initial purchase price.
Poor quality projects are under significant pressure and we understand one in five
foreign buyers aren't settling, citing tightened capital controls. While Mirvac and
Lend Lease have only a small exposure to Brisbane apartment completions in the
next 24 months (270 apartments), we will be watching the market closely and also
to provide an understanding of how foreign buyers will react if prices in Sydney
and Melbourne also softened.
Changes in stamp duty
From July 1 2017 Victoria and NSW both doubled stamp duty on foreigners buying
new apartments. NSW foreigner stamp duty was raised from 4% to 8%. Victoria
stamp duty was changed to be levied on the end value of the apartment.
Previously a concession was available for off the plan apartments and paid only on
the land value (1/3 of end value). This change captures foreign buyers of
investment property too. Victoria has also introduced a vacant property tax of 1%
which will come into effect 1 January 2018. Again it is unclear how this will be
From our discussion with industry contacts, the stamp duty changes has led to a
pull forward in demand in June, with some developers achieving 3x usual sales
volumes. The impact to prices has been negligible. Certainly, the magnitude of
foreigner stamp duty in Sydney and Melbourne is low in comparison to the levels
of Hong Kong and Singapore which are up to 30% and 20% respectively
Where next? Thailand
下一站是哪里？泰国！！！（重点章节，有兴趣可以翻译阅读）
Foreign buying interest picks-up: Buyers from China have favoured countries
such as Hong Kong, Singapore, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Canadafor purchases.
However, we are seeing evidence of growing interest in South East Asia, specifically Thailand, perhaps in recognition of China's 'One Belt One Road' (OBOR) programme and the substantial infrastructure investment occurring, and/or perhaps reflective of attractive pricing.
The Thai developers and industry experts have seen a noticeable pick-up in foreign buyer activity in 2017, with many of the developers increasing focus on this segment next year. However, the foreign buyer penetration is still low in Thailand, with foreign presales accounting for 2-10% of sales for the major developers. The exception is Sansiri where management expects presales to reach Bt8bn or as much as 20% of total in 2017.
Foreigners are not allowed to own land in Thailand by law. However, if they are interested in buying, they have two options: either a 30-year leasehold or
purchasing property through a limited company. Condominiums can be purchased by foreigners as long as at least 51% of the building is owned by Thais.
Distribution and branding are two key success factors, while marketing is usually done through local selling agents. Investment is often cited as the main reason for purchasing. Thailand is attractive for foreign buyers given its favorable price point, attractive rental yield and absence of stamp duty.
Hong Kong and Singaporean buyers generally top the list as most active foreign buyers, followed by China and Japan buyers. The most desirable location for Hong Kong, Singaporean and Japanese buyers is the CBD of Bangkok, within close proximity to mass transit lines. For the Japanese, Sukhumvit seems be the preferred area. For the Chinese, Rama9 and Ratchada are popular locations.
Desirable price point appears to be around Bt7-10mn per unit. The Chinese buyer prefers the lower-end of this price range, while the Japanese's buyer's budget is towards the higher-end. Foreign buyers tend to be cash buyers. Foreign buyers can only purchase condominium units using foreign currency and currently only UOB offers lending.
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今日搜狐热点中国人购房能力提高 目前在建住宅可满足五年需求 - 数据 -阳江乐居网
乐居买房APP
专车看房 优惠买房
乐居二手房APP
最新房源抢先看
新浪装修家居网
抢工长装修APP
抢工长工长版APP
装修不后悔APP
买房利器小程序
乐居看房小程序
楼市报道小程序
房贷计算器
房产家居直播平台
中国人购房能力提高 目前在建住宅可满足五年需求
来源：东方网
　　由于中国内地房地产开发商融资渠道更加通畅、监管方面的不确定性降低，预计中国住房建设活动将在2013年增长。鉴于2012年上半年房地产销售疲软，2013年上半年销量同比增速可能高于下半年。
　　中国官方数据显示，去年第四季度中国GDP(国内生产总值)同比增长7.8%，呈加速趋势，高于第三季度7.4%的增速。同时，据《华尔街日报》文章指出，数据显示，2009年以来，中国城镇居民平均可支配收入增加了约43%，房价仅上涨了11%。尽管以平均收入计算，中国人全款购买一套均价公寓现在需要大约16年收入，明显高于其他国家(美国房价一般是居民平均年收入的5倍左右)，但已低于2007年，当时买套房需要21年收入。这已经足以提振楼市真实需求，帮助房价与居民收入接轨，为中国房地产市场注入新活力。在中国内地房价一度涨到惊人高位之后，中国政府最高决策层决定出手遏制房价涨势，使居民收入增长有机会反超，使城市中等收入群体购房能力有所提高。
　　当真实需求回暖，可以肯定中国房价又将缓慢回升。1月份中国城市住宅均价同比上涨0.03%，结束八个月下降之势。两级政府对房价的打压使得上海楼市均价已两年持平。在严厉调控抑制房价上涨三年后，中国房地产开发商也再次变得谨慎乐观。中国内地收入规模最大的房地产开发商万科[简介 最新动态]财报称，去年12月公司销售额同比增长一倍多，2012年全年销售额增长了16.2%。大型房地产开发商的股票出现反弹。中国海外是香港股票交易所表现最好的股票之一，股价较2012年初大涨了逾90%，而整个大盘仅上涨了26%。显然，大型房地产开发商从强劲的财务状况和庞大的规模中受益，并开建新盘。2012年11月在建新楼面面积同比增长6.3%，此前在这一年的大部分时间都呈同比下降。瑞士信贷分析师预计，2013年中国内地建筑活动将会走强。
　　众所周知，房地产是中国经济增长主要推动力之一，对钢铁、水泥、家具和家电等行业也有重要影响。《华尔街日报》另一篇报道中引用麦格理分析师的话称，钢铁厂预期接下来一年来自房地产的需求更加旺盛。2012年上半年中国钢铁产量同比持平，11月实现15%的增长。铁矿石价格的上涨促使澳大利亚FortescueMetals Group重启此前停顿的12亿美元投资项目。
　　然而，中国内地房地产市场此次复苏的起点很低。大城市2012年成交量较2011年明显上升是基于2010年和2011年很低的增长率。三年调控抬高了房地产开发商的债务和库存。即使没有新盘开工，在建的住宅也足以满足市场大约五年的需求，高于2009年的比例2.9年。另外，房地产行业内部分化非常突出。小型开发商将继续受制于有限的财务能力，在低流动性和严格调控环境下仍易受到冲击。
　　我以为，长期看，中国内地房地产市场增长将受到城镇化进程以及家庭收入增长的支撑，但下一届中国政府将继续实施住房限购政策，继续努力遏制房价过度上涨。尽管中国住房和城乡建设部官员曾吹风，除了支持购买首套房，政府也将支持购买改善型住房购买者获得按揭贷款，但中国内地房地产市场欲重现当年繁荣还有待时日。一旦住宅价格大幅上涨，中央政府可能再次加强调控。
热日 11:34
热日 15:57
热日 11:43
热日 14:54
热日 15:14
热日 15:06
热日 11:01
热日 10:44
2018年监管部门对于乱象整治工作中的大案要案会坚持顶格处罚。
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北京怡生乐居信息服务有限公司
北京市海淀区北四环西路58号理想国际大厦806-810室
乐居房产、家居产品用户服务、产品咨询购买、技术支持客服服务热线：新房、二手房：400-606-6969 &家居、抢工长：400-010-2323}